Use of wastewater metrics to track COVID-19 in the U.S.: a national time-series analysis over the first three quarters of 2022 (preprint)

Background: Widespread use of at-home COVID-19 tests hampers determination of community COVID-19 incidence. Using nationwide data available through the US National Wastewater Surveillance System, we examined the performance of two wastewater metrics in predicting high case and hospitalizations rates both before and after widespread use of at-home tests. Methods: We performed area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (AUC) for two wastewater metrics- viral concentration relative to the peak of January 2022 ('wastewater percentile') and 15-day percent change in SARS-CoV-2 ('percent change'). Dichotomized reported cases (equal to or greater than 200 or <200 cases per 100,000) and new hospitalizations (equal to or greater than 10 or <10 per 100,000) were our dependent variables, stratified by calendar quarter. Using logistic regression, we assessed the performance of combining wastewater metrics. Results: Among 268 counties across 22 states, wastewater percentile detected high reported case and hospitalizations rates in the first quarter of 2022 (AUC 0.95 and 0.86 respectively) whereas the percent change did not (AUC 0.54 and 0.49 respectively). A wastewater percentile of 51% maximized sensitivity (0.93) and specificity (0.82) for detecting high case rates. A model inclusive of both metrics performed no better than using wastewater percentile alone. The predictive capability of wastewater percentile declined over time (AUC 0.84 and 0.72 for cases for second and third quarters of 2022). Conclusion: Nationwide, county wastewater levels above 51% relative to the historic peak predicted high COVID rates and hospitalization in the first quarter of 2022, but performed less well in subsequent quarters. Decline over time in predictive performance of this metric likely reflects underreporting of cases, reduced testing, and possibly lower virulence of infection due to vaccines and treatments.

SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron surge among patients receiving dialysis: the role of circulating receptor-binding domain antibodies and vaccine doses (preprint)

Background It is unclear whether a third dose of mRNA platform vaccines, or antibody response to prior infection or vaccination confer protection from the Omicron variant among patients receiving dialysis. Methods Monthly since February 2021, we tested plasma from 4,697 patients receiving dialysis for antibodies to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. We assessed semiquantitative median IgG index values over time among patients vaccinated with at least one dose of the two mRNA vaccines. We ascertained documented COVID-19 diagnoses after December 25, 2021 and up to January 31, 2022. We estimated the relative risk for documented SARS-CoV-2 infection by vaccination status using a log-binomial model accounting for age, sex, and prior clinical COVID-19. Among patients with RBD IgG index value available during December 1-December 24, 2021, we also evaluated the association between the circulating RBD IgG titer and risk for Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results Of the 4,697 patients we followed with monthly RBD assays, 3576 are included in the main analysis cohort; among these, 852 (24%) were unvaccinated. Antibody response to third doses was robust (median peak index IgG value at assay limit of 150, equivalent to 3270 binding antibody units/mL). Between December 25-January 1, 2022, SARS-CoV-2 infection was documented 340 patients (7%), 115 (36%) of whom were hospitalized. The final doses of vaccines were given a median of 272 (25th, 75th percentile, 245-303) days and 58 (25th, 75th percentile, 51-95) days prior to infection for the 1-2 dose and 3 dose vaccine groups respectively. Relative risks for infection were higher among patients without vaccination (RR 2.1 [95%CI 1.6, 2.8]), and patients with 1-2 doses (RR 1.3 [95%CI 1.0, 1.8]), compared with patients with three doses of the mRNA vaccines. Relative risks for infection were higher among patients with RBD index values < 23 (506 BAU/mL), compared with RBD index value [≥] 23 (RR 2.4 [95%CI 1.9, 3.0]). The higher risk for infection among patients with RBD index values < 23 was present among patients who received three doses (RR 2.1 [95%CI 1.3, 3.4]). Conclusions Among patients receiving hemodialysis, patients unvaccinated, without a third mRNA vaccine dose, or those lacking robust circulating antibody response are at higher risk for Omicron variant infection. Low circulating antibodies could identify the subgroup needing intensified surveillance, prophylaxis or treatment in this patient population.

Antibody Response to COVID-19 vaccination in Patients Receiving Dialysis (preprint)

Background Patients receiving dialysis may mount impaired responses to COVID19 vaccination. Methods We report antibody response to vaccination from 1140 patients without, and 493 patients with pre-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibody. We used commercially available assays (Siemens) to test remainder plasma monthly in association with vaccination date and type, and assess prevalence of absent total receptor binding antibody, and absent or attenuated (index value < 10) semiquantitative receptor binding domain IgG index values. We used Poisson regression to evaluate risk factors for absent or attenuated response to vaccination. Results Among patients who were seronegative versus seropositive before vaccination, 62% and 56% were ≥65 years old, 20% and 24% were Hispanic, and 22% and 23% were Black. Median IgG index values rose steadily over time, and were higher among the seropositive than in the seronegative patients after completing vaccination (150 [25 th , 75 th percentile 23.2, 150.0] versus 41.6 [11.3, 150.0]). Among 610 patients who completed vaccination (assessed ≥14 days later, median 29 days later), the prevalence of absent total RBD response, and absent and attenuated semiquantitative IgG response was 4.4% (95% CI 3.1, 6.4%), 3.4% (2.4, 5.2%), and 14.3% (11.7, 17.3%) respectively. Risk factors for absent or attenuated response included longer vintage of end-stage kidney disease, and lower pre-vaccination serum albumin. Conclusions More than one in five patients receiving dialysis had evidence of an attenuated immune response to COVID19 vaccination. Significance statement Patients receiving dialysis face high likelihood of severe COVID19; at the same time, vaccination may be less efficacious, as prior data indicate impaired immune responses to influenza and Hepatitis B vaccination. We found that 22% of patients receiving dialysis had suboptimal responses to vaccination, irrespective of whether or not they had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Poorer health status and longer duration of end-stage kidney disease increased likelihood of suboptimal response. Ongoing vigilance for COVID19 in dialysis facilities and studies of modified vaccination dosing schedules will be critical to protecting patients receiving dialysis.